Proposal preview

Demography and economic change from modern era to date: An international comparative perspective.

In the last few decades the risk of an unsustainable explosion of the world population has given way to the fear of a demographic winter, possibly inducing relevant losses in terms of economic and social dynamism. In the most developed countries first, and in many emerging countries then, a situation combining accelerated aging and long-term shrinking of working-age population, an older workforce with obsolete skills, may significantly contribute to lower the paces of productivity growth and innovativeness.
The main goal of the Session is to discuss themes related to population structure and its changes – its main driving components as fertility, mortality, life expectancy, and migration – investigating how did they contribute to economic dynamics in the past. This will help to interpret today’s prevailing long-term demographic perspectives, to understand their geographical scope and their global implications. The works presented in the Session, in fact, will help to give a historically informed view on core current demographic issues such as ageing and sub-replacement fertility, and on their economic consequences. The search of commonalities and divergences between pre-modern, modern and post-modern demographic developments may help to critically assess present predictions of future demographic dynamics and to discuss policy options to deal with upcoming challenges. Along these lines, the Session may contribute to a richer understanding of the links between demographic and economic forces, including a possible original reading of the current secular stagnation debate.
The Session, with an international and long-run scope, will develop as an interdisciplinary discussion between demographers, historical demographers, economic historians, economists. The papers will focus on single country’s experiences or on cross country analyses in the far past or over a long period of time.

Format
The Session will be organized in three chaired sub-sessions of about 60 minutes each; the three sub-sessions will include three papers each. Within each sub-session, after presentation of the three papers by Authors, the Convenor should highlight the three papers’ main common issues and ignite the discussion from the Floor. The papers will be pre-circulated. Papers, presentations and discussions will explore one or more issues outlined above with the goal of developing a comparative perspective.

Organizer(s)

  • Federico Barbiellini Amidei, Banca d'Italia, federico.barbielliniamidei@bancaditalia.it , Italy
  • Matteo Gomellini, Banca d'Italia, matteo.gomellini@bancaditalia.it , Italy
  • Faustine Perrin, Lund University, faustine.perrin@ekh.lu.se , Sweden

Session members

  • Guido Alfani , Università Bocconi
  • Federico Barbiellini Amidei, Banca d'Italia
  • Sascha O. Becker, University of Warwick
  • Carlo Ciccarelli, Università di Roma Tor Vergata
  • Gianpiero Dalla Zuanna, Università degli Studi di Padova
  • David de la Croix, Université catholique de Louvain
  • Martin Dribe , Lund University
  • Matteo Gomellini, Banca d'Italia
  • Faustine Perrin, Lund University
  • Bastien Chabé-Ferret, University of Essex
  • Asher Colombo, University of Bologna

Discussant(s)

  • Tommy Bengtsson (Chair), Lund University, tommy.bengtsson@ekh.lu.se
  • Stephen Broadberry (Chair), Oxford University, stephen.broadberry@nuffield.ox.ac.uk
  • Rossella Calvi (Convenor), Rice University, rossella.calvi@rice.edu
  • Francesco Cinnirella (Convenor), University of Southern Denmark, cinnirella@sam.sdu.dk
  • Kenda Mutongi (Chair), Williams, kmutongi@williams.edu
  • Marlous van Waijenburg (Convenor), University of Michigan, mvanwaij@umich.edu

Papers

Panel abstract

In the last few decades the risk of an unsustainable explosion of the world population has given way to the fear of a demographic winter, possibly inducing relevant losses in terms of economic and social dynamism. In the most developed countries first, and in many emerging countries then, a situation combining accelerated aging and long-term shrinking of working-age population, an older workforce with obsolete skills, may significantly contribute to lower the paces of productivity growth and innovativeness. The main goal of the Session is to discuss themes related to population structure and its changes – its main driving components as fertility, mortality, life expectancy, and migration – investigating how did they contribute to economic dynamics in the past. This will help to interpret today’s prevailing long-term demographic perspectives, to understand their geographical scope and their global implications. *Attending authors.

1st half

The chronology and the causes of famine in Italy and Europe, ca. 1250-1950

Guido Alfani*

The price of demography

Federico Barbiellini Amidei*, Matteo Gomellini*, Paolo Piselli

Age structure and productivity in Italy

Carlo Ciccarelli*, Matteo Gomellini*, Paolo Sestito

French Fertility and Education Transition, Rational Choice vs Cultural Diffusion TBC

David de la Croix*, Faustine Perrin*

SES and Fertility in a Global and Historical Perspective. Evidence from Micro-Level Population Data

Martin Dribe*, Francesco Scalone

2nd half

Economic Uncertainty and Fertility Cycles. The Case of the Post WWII Baby Boom

Bastien Chabé-Ferret*, Paula Gobbi

Forced Migration and Human Capital Accumulation. Evidence from Post-WWII Population Transfers_1

Sascha O. Becker*, Irena Grosfeld, Pauline Grosjean, Nico Voigtländer, Ekaterina Zhuravskaya

Migration, human capital and selection patterns of university scholars in Medieval and Early Modern Europe

David de la Croix*, Frédéric Docquier, Alice Fabre, Robert Stelter

Forty years of Italian migrations in international comparison (1977-2017), between population aging, North-South divide and labor market tensions in a familistic society

Asher Colombo*, Gianpiero Dalla Zuanna*

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