Proposal preview

Growth and business cycle stability: lessons from economic history

In the last decades, economic historians have been developing long-run data which permits testing competing economic theories. In this session we consider lessons for macroeconomic theory and policy derived from new research on long-run economic history. One paper is the first to use a dataset representing close to 90% of world long-term capital flows prior to 1913 to test the growth impact of foreign capital in developing nations; the evidence is disaggregated by economic sector. Another paper investigates how fiscal capacity contributed to dampening the cyclical component of government revenues during the interwar and the Great Depression. A third paper provides historical evidence that education and fertility are endogenous to economic circumstances, using evidence from the introduction of a tariff on cereals in France in the late 19th century. Finally, the last paper finds that the monetary shock from the discovery of precious metals in America during the 16th century had a large and persistent real effect in 6 European nations.

Organizer(s)

  • Nuno Palma, University of Manchester, nuno.palma@manchester.ac.uk,

Session members

  • Vicent Bignon , Banque de France, vincent.bignon@banque-france.fr
  • Rui Esteves, University of Oxford, rui.esteves@economics.ox.ac.uk
  • Nuno Palma, University of Groningen, n.p.palma@rug.nl
  • Andrea Papadia, LSE, A.papadia@lse.ac.uk
  • Alba R. Marin, University of Barcelona, alba_roma@me.com
  • James Foreman-Peck, University of Cardiff, Foreman-PeckJ@cardiff.ac.uk
  • Peng Zhou, University of Cardiff,
  • Jérémie Cohen-Setton, Peterson Institute for International Economics, JCohenSetton@piie.com
  • Egor Gornostay, Peterson Institute for International Economics,

Proposed discussant(s)

  • Vicent Bignon , Banque de France, vincent.bignon@banque-france.fr
  • Rui Esteves, University of Oxford, rui.esteves@economics.ox.ac.uk
  • Nuno Palma, University of Manchester, nuno.palma@manchester.ac.uk
  • Andrea Papadia, LSE, A.papadia@lse.ac.uk
  • Alba R. Marin, University of Barcelona, alba_roma@me.com